The Way This Strange Campaign Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still