Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
