Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.