A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
